A pre-poll survey conducted by Aaraa, has predicted that the YSR Congress could get between 105 and 112 Assembly seats and 15 to 18 Lok Sabha seats in Seemandhra. Agastya Research and Analysis Agency (Aaraa), the agency which carried out the statewide pre-poll survey, said it structured the sample to reflect constituency-level caste combinations of voters. The halfway mark in the 175-seat Seemandhra House is 88. The Telugu Desam-BJP combine could win 55 to 65 Assembly seats and seven to 10 Lok Sabha seats, the survey showed. In Telangana, Aaraa reported that the Telangana Rashtra Samiti could emerge as the single largest party but it could be a hung Assembly with no party crossing the half-way mark of 60 in the 119-member House.
Aaraa said that Seemandhra may see the highest number of potentially winning Independent candidates, who couldn’t find a berth in either the YSRC or the TD. The damage these Independents can cause needs to be watched closely, the report said. The last date for withdrawal of nominations is April 23, by which time the parties should persuade them to withdraw. Aaraa said that its survey covered 25,000 voters. Interestingly, unlike in the rest of the country, the perceived wave in favour of BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is countered by the negative impact of the party’s support to state division in Seemandhra, according to the survey.
Division not to affect TD’s vote A majority believes that the state would have never been bifurcated had Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy been alive, a pre-poll survey conducted by Aaraa reported. But, TD chief N. Chandrababu Naidu doesn’t seem to be suffering any negative impact for giving a letter in support of bifurcation nor is YSRC chief Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy making gains for supporting united AP. The survey reported that people would vote on the basis of issues like bifurcation, price rise and inflation, economic downslide, corruption, power shortages, power bills and political instability besides the development-factor in both the states. In Seemandhra, the key issue happens to be the state’s bifurcation and the majority opinion is against the Congress, TD and the BJP. The TD’s decision to enter into a pre-poll alliance with the BJP could cost it its minority support, the survey said.
This is clearly visible in three of the four Rayalaseema districts Anantapur, Kurnool and Kadapa , where Muslims constitute a sizeable percentage of the electorate. The survey found that in the last three to four weeks, the TD has made marginal gains by taking a majority of Congress leaders into its fold and simultaneously working on an alliance with the BJP and actor Pawan Kalyan to woo the Kapu votes. The survey reported a common belief that Mr Naidu could deliver better development because of his experience but this was counter-balanced by those feeling that a young leader like Jagan Mohan Reddy could make a difference by building a better state because of his entrepreneurial skills and global exposure.
Aaraa reported that people believed there was huge corruption in the Jalayagnam project but also agreed that some projects were completed and lakhs of acres of land were brought under cultivation. A majority said that the welfare schemes introduced by the YSR government had been abandoned by Congress governments. In Seemandhra, the report says, YSRC was ahead of the TD-BJP alliance by nearly eight per cent. With a projected vote share of 49 per cent, the YSRC was seen to win between 105 and 112 Assembly seats. In the Lok Sabha seats, the party was likely to win 15 to 18 of the total 25. The Congress is expected to win at least one Lok Sabha seat in Seemandhra. The others, namely independents, with 12 per cent vote share, may end up winning 10-15 Assembly seats.
More importantly, they could play a crucial role in making or breaking these parties. In Telangana, the survey reported that sentiment would play a key role in the northern region, giving a clear edge to the TRS. The Congress has failed to capitalise on party chief Sonia Gandhi’s initiative to grant statehood. The survey gave the TRS a 40 per cent vote share and 52-57 Assembly seats of the total 119, and the Congress-CPI combine with 31 per cent vote share could bag 43-45 seats. The TD-BJP combine failed to make any big gains and could end up with 12-15 Assembly seats from an 18-per cent vote share; the YSRC’s 6 per cent vote could win it 3-6 seats and the MIM, 6-7 seats, the survey reported.
Of the 17 Lok Sabha seats in the state, the TRS is projected to win 7-9 with 35 per cent vote, while Congress+CPI with 31 per cent vote share may win 4-6 seats. The TD+BJP combine is projected to win 2-3 seats with 22 per cent votes. The others, including the MIM, are projected to have a vote share of 12 per cent and could win 1 or 2 seats. The survey gives the YSRC with a 5 per cent share, 0-1 seats.
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